Examining the Gains, Gaps, and Road Ahead for the Higher Education Compacts and Roadmap
This is the second piece in a dedicated blog series exploring the agreements and their contents. It builds on our earlier analysis “Unpacking the Higher Education Compacts and Roadmap” to examine where California’s colleges and universities stand on the goals they set with the state, spotlighting early progress and challenges that remain.
In 2022, Governor Newsom entered into five-year agreements with California’s three public higher education segments:
- University of California (UC): A compact agreement based on its UC 2030 framework
- California State University (CSU): A compact agreement tied to its Graduation Initiative 2025 and now with some similar goals in the new CSU Forward strategic plan
- California Community Colleges (CCC): A roadmap aligned originally with Vision for Success and now with many aspects of Vision 2030
These agreements were made during a time of fiscal strength, outlining mutual commitments to student success, equity, and workforce alignment in exchange for steady annual funding increases for UC and CSU. But in 2023, the state’s budget outlook shifted. California faces multi-year budget deficits and has deferred compact funding for the second year in a row—more than $500 million for UC and CSU—raising uncertainty about both the timing of those payments and whether the final year of compact funding will materialize. CCC, whose funding is not tied to its roadmap, received a $760 million increase, but its future funding also depends on the state’s overall fiscal health since its funding levels are determined as a share of overall state revenues. While the state’s fiscal picture has changed, the compacts and roadmap are still referenced in the budget, and the three systems continue to report on their progress.
Meanwhile, the postsecondary education landscape continues to evolve. Escalating federal actions, new statewide initiatives and plans, a statewide coordinating entity, and a rapidly changing economy are reshaping higher education. Leadership changes at CSU and UC further highlight an opportunity to reassess priorities and explore how the segments can continue advancing student success in this evolving landscape.
In this moment of fiscal constraint and policy opportunity, let’s revisit the compacts and roadmap to review progress, identify gaps, and leverage this period of change to strengthen California’s higher education system for greater impact on students, communities, and the state’s economy. As we evaluate the segments’ progress on the goals in the compacts and roadmap, it is important to be mindful that the segments have not received the funding that was originally promised. In addition, the following analysis focuses only on the goals in the compacts and roadmap, not all the goals in each segments’ strategic plans or state budget agreements.
Compact and Roadmap Reports Reviewed
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Access: Enrollment Growth Progress is Uneven Across Segments and Campuses
California’s public colleges and universities set ambitious goals to expand access by boosting enrollment of undergraduates, transfer students, graduate students, and those in high-demand fields like STEM, healthcare, and education. UC is largely on track with resident undergraduate growth, but transfer and graduate student enrollment need continued attention. CSU remains below overall goals, with deep enrollment declines at several campuses. Meanwhile, CCC, which does not have a set enrollment growth goal in their agreement, experienced about a 10% increase in enrollment—an encouraging sign that the state may be able to rebuild its transfer pipeline.
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Completion: Graduation Rates Show Modest Gains, But Gaps Persist
The compacts and roadmap aim to improve student success by raising the graduation rates of various student populations. UC and CSU show some progress towards its graduation goals, including in the transfer graduate rate for UC and maintaining a nationally competitive six-year graduation rate for CSU, but overall four-year graduation rates for both remain below target. CCC has made notable gains in transfer-level course completion, but overall transfers to UC and CSU have fallen short of targets.
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Equity: Outcome Gaps Persist Among Underrepresented Students
California’s public higher education segments have made equity a shared priority, but progress toward closing gaps in graduation outcomes for Pell grant recipients, underrepresented students, first-generation students, and disabled students remains slow and uneven, and systemwide tracking remains limited. UC has made some progress on reducing equity gaps in four-year graduation rates for low-income and other underrepresented students, while CSU has not made progress in most of these areas, with some gaps widening since 2022. CCC did not report roadmap-aligned equity data in its annual roadmap progress reports.
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Cost: Affordability Represents a Missed Opportunity in the Compacts and Roadmap
College affordability remains a major barrier for Californians, especially adult learners, student parents, and low-income students. Rising housing and food costs, combined with financial aid that often fails to cover the true cost of attendance, threaten students’ ability to persist and succeed. To shed light on this, the compacts and roadmap include a few clear affordability metrics, and reporting on them has been limited. Available data, however, suggest that progress is being made across all segments.
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Career Readiness: Efforts on Improving Workforce Outcomes Show Progress
In addition to access, success, equity, and affordability goals, these agreements also include a focus on workforce alignment and experiential learning. All three segments have reported positive movement within this area, though many of these efforts lack annual benchmarks.
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Online Education: UC and CSU Grows its Online Offerings
Demand for online education is high, and UC and CSU have made significant strides in expanding access to offerings in this modality. CCC does not have goals on this topic listed in the roadmap. UC and CSU have exceeded its 2025 goal, increasing online credit hours by more than 400% and 99% respectively.
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Looking Ahead: What Do the Compacts and Roadmap Mean for California’s Higher Education Future?
Now entering the fourth year of the five-year agreements, with third-year progress reports soon to be released, the compacts and roadmap face an uncertain future. Deferred funding, shifting state priorities, escalating federal actions, and Governor Newsom’s final years in office have all tested the agreements’ viability as a policy tool for driving progress. While the agreements aimed to drive state leadership and shared accountability across segments, limited coordination and unclear stakes constrain their long-term impact.
The newly established California Education Interagency Council offers a timely and promising vehicle to build on this foundation. By taking a systemwide view, the Council can assess how the compacts’ and roadmap’s goals collectively advance statewide workforce and equity priorities, identify gaps, and align strategies and resources for greater impact.
As California defines the next phase of its higher education strategy, it can embed collaboration, transparency, and accountability across the full postsecondary ecosystem to ensure meaningful progress for today’s students, communities, and the state’s economy.
¹ California State University, Enrollment Dashboard
² California Community Colleges Chancellor’s Office, SCFF Data Trends and Insights
³ California Community Colleges Chancellor’s Office. (2024, September 5). Disabled Student Programs and Services 2024 Legislative Report
⁴ CCCCO DataVista, Single Metric View K12 Special Admit Cohort
⁵ California Community Colleges Chancellor’s Office, MAP Credit for Prior Learning Dashboard
⁶ CCC has several types of apprenticeship programs and the roadmap is not specific about which programs should be expanded. The Related and Supplemental Instruction Reimbursement Program (RSI) reimburses apprenticeship programs for the hours of work they provide. CCC tracks funding and progress of these programs through the RSI Program page.
